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DAILY FX

FOREX OPTION & FUTURES SHOW US$ BOTTOM LIKELY.....

Tuesday, 28 July 2009 19:13:18 GMT

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Previous Articles

• Jul 29 - Euro Threatened as Stocks Back Down, German CPI Points to Deflation (Euro Open)
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 28 - Stability in the Dollar and Risk Trends Won't Last Long
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 28 - Forex Options and Futures Show US Dollar Bottom Likely
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 25 - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 07.27.09
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 23 - Risk Appetite Soars, But the Currency Market Waits for Its Own Critical Break
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 23 - GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Advanced GDP Report
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 23 - EURUSD Forecast to Rise Further and Test 1.45
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 22 - Dollar on The Verge of Collapse as Earnings Ease, Growth Firms
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 23 - British Pound to Look Past Retail Sales, Home Loans Data to Trade on Risk Appetite (Euro Open)
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 22 - Pound, Euro Weighed By Profit Taking, BoE Minutes Balanced with QE Measures Under Review
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 22 - British Pound to Look Past Bank of England Minutes, Trade on Risk Sentiment (Euro Open)
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 21 - British Pound Positions to Reverse Lower Against Japanse Yen
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 21 - Australian CPI may Change the RBA's Outlook on Rates
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 21 - Pound Weighed, Dollar Finds Support As Bernanke Talks Tightening
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 17 - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 07.20.09
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 21 - British Pound Vulnerable as UK Cash Shortage Rises, Threatening Credit Rating (Euro Open)
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 16 - Risk Appetite Tempered as Credit Threats Meet Strong Earnings
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 17 - US Dollar, Japanese Yen Higher as Oil Leads Commodities Lower Overnight (Euro Open)
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 16 - US Dollar Forecast Bearish on Sentiment, but Range Levels Critical
  
  
  
  
  
• Jul 15 - Earnings Season Looks to Take Control of Risk Appetite and the Markets
  
  
  
  
  

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

Forex options and CME futures data show that anti-US Dollar sentiment continues to register impressive extremes, and it is increasingly a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ the USD will post a noteworthy correction. Indeed, CME data shows that traders remain the most heavily net-short the Greenback since early 2008—at which point the dollar set an important bottom against the Euro and other key currencies. Of course, the timing of such a move is far from clear; we will need to see signs of noteworthy price reversal before calling for a sustained USD rally.

Forex options and CME futures data show that anti-US Dollar sentiment continues to register impressive extremes, and it is increasingly a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ the USD will post a noteworthy correction. Indeed, CME data shows that traders remain the most heavily net-short the Greenback since early 2008—at which point the dollar set an important bottom against the Euro and other key currencies. Of course, the timing of such a move is far from clear; we will need to see signs of noteworthy price reversal before calling for a sustained USD rally.

Read a how-to guide on understanding our Forex Options Weekly Forecast report.

Our DailyFX Volatility indices are at the bottom of their medium-term ranges and continue trending lower, leaving little room for substantial currency moves through the foreseeable future. Said developments suggest that we can expect major pairs to stick within long-standing trading ranges, which in and of itself would support the case for a USD bounce. It will nonetheless be critical to watch whether the Dollar can hold key range lows against the Euro and other pairs.

Euro/US Dollar Options Analysis

The Euro continues to climb to fresh multi-month peaks and speculative positioning now shows traders are the most net-long the EURUSD since early 2008. Indeed, CME Futures data shows that Non-Commercial traders aggressively bought the Euro through last week’s trade. Forex options markets data has, perhaps surprisingly, not registered similar sentiment extremes. The divergence suggests that options traders are less concerned with persistent EURUSD strength. We maintain that the pair could see a substantial reversal, but the timing of said move remains extremely challenging.

FOREX PK KALPOINT

Open Market Currency Exchange Rates (Forex Rates) in Pakistan

Updated on: Wed, July 29, 2009, 12:34 (PST) Arrows of currency trend in the chart show forex exchange rates compared with the latest forex exchange rates Following are indicative forex exchange currencies rates Courtesy : ECAP
Remittance	Buying	Selling	Trend
US Dollar DD	0.0	0.0
US Dollar TT	0.0	0.0
Currency Notes
US Dollar	83.00	83.30
Kuwaiti Dinar	284.71	288.73
Malaysian Ringgit	0.0	0.0
Norwegians Krone	13.18	13.37
UK Pound Sterling	134.71	135.34
Saudi Riyal	21.92	22.14
Singapore Dollar	0.0	0.0
Swedish Korona	10.90	11.07
Swiss Franc	76.19	77.19
U.A.E Dirham	22.38	22.62
Bahrain Dinar	217.52	220.40
NewZealand $	43.5	43.8
Omani Riyal	213.11	215.60
Australian Dollar	67.37	68.37
Danish Krone	15.57	15.78
Euro	115.97	117.45
Thai Bhat	0.0	0.0
Canadian Dollar	75.57	76.69
Hong Kong Dollar	10.44	10.71
Qatari Riyal	22.46	22.90
Indian Rupee	1.58	1.68
China Yuan	0.0	0.0
Japanese Yen	0.8663	0.8770
Forex Open Market Analysis

BERNAMA

Bernama.com

---

Markets

FOREX: Ringgit Lower Against US Dollar In Early Trade

KUALA LUMPUR, July 29 (Bernama) -- The ringgit was lower against the US dollar in early trade Wednesday as the bigger-than-expected drop in US consumer confidence boosted safe-haven demand for the greenback, dealers said. At the opening, the ringgit was at 3.5125/5155 to a dollar compared with 3.5080/5130 yesterday. Against the Singapore dollar, the ringgit rose to 2.4367/4411 from 2.4370/4428 yesterday and was lower against the Japanese yen at 3.7126/7166 from 3.6961/6026 previously. The local currency was slightly higher against the British pound at 5.7791/7858 from 5.7924/7021 yesterday and increased against the euro to 4.9832/9885 from 5.0038/0120 previously. -- BERNAMA

RETURNS INDIA

FOREX---dollar rises from 2009 low of recovery convens.....

* Dollar, yen rally after U.S. July consumer data

* Dollar rebounds from 2009 trough vs basket of currencies

* U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected to 46.6

* Aussie dollar gains on rate hike expectations (Adds comments, updates prices, adds detail)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded on Tuesday from its lowest level this year against a basket of currencies as a drop in U.S. consumer confidence fueled worries about the economy, enhancing the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

The weaker-than-expected U.S. data added to pessimism already in the financial markets sparked by disappointing quarterly results from a handful of major companies such as Office Depot Inc (ODP.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

That weighed heavily on stock and oil prices and dragged down the Australian dollar from its highest level against the U.S. currency since last September. The yen rallied across the board as investors dumped riskier assets.

"Consumers are feeling no love in this recovery," said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. "All this suggests is that the critical assumption by the recovery bulls that consumption will come back as the recovery takes hold is faulty."
1 | 2 | 3 Next Page

More US Dollar Report

FOREX-Dollar, yen gain as risk rally stalls

FOREX-Dollar drifts sideways as market awaits fresh leads

FOREX-Dollar drifts sideways as market awaits fresh leads

FOREX-Yen slips as Tokyo share price gains encourage risk

FOREX-Dollar rises from 2009 low after US consumer data

Dollar extends gains vs euro on weaker US consumer data

FOREX-Dollar, yen gain as stock fall dents risk appetite

Euro hits session low as US stock futures fall

FOREX-Dollar edges lower, hits 8-wk low vs euro

More US Dollar Report News...

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Forex Training: Trading Courses Index

Forex Trading Course - Forex Market

The off-exchange retail foreign currency market ("forex") describes the purchase of a particular currency from an individual or institution and the simultaneous sale of another currency at the equivalent value or current exchange rate. Essentially, the process of exchanging one currency for another is a trade based on the current rates of the two currencies involved.

• 1010 - Intro to Forex
  
  
  
  
  
• 1011 - Forex Prices
  
  
  
  
  
• 1012 - Forex vs. Equities
  
  
  
  
  
• 1013 - Forex vs. Futures
  
  
  
  
  
• 1014 - Understanding Currency Pairs
  
  
  
  
  
• 1015 - Understanding Margin
  
  
  
  
  
• 1020 - Contract Sizes & Margin Call
  
  
  
  
  
• 1030 - Majors, Cross & Pips
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Technical Analysis

“Technical analysis” is an industry term that more often than not sounds much more complicated than the actual process is. Really, it ought to be referred to as “price analysis”, as this would be a more accurate description. Through the use of charted data traders around the world analyze their market of choice. The objective: attempt to determine future price movement. The means: understanding price movement patterns of the past.

• 1010 - Intro to Technical Analysis
  
  
  
  
  
• 1015 - Basic Concepts
  
  
  
  
  
• 1020 - Pattern Recognition
  
  
  
  
  
• 1030 - Support & Resistance
  
  
  
  
  
• 1040 - Moving Averages
  
  
  
  
  
• 1050 - Trading with 2 Moving Averages
  
  
  
  
  
• 1060 - MACD
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular currency. This method of study attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors. Imagine financial markets as a large clock, the gears inside this clock that move the hands, or drive the clock would be these "fundamentals".

• 1010 - Intro to Fundamental Analysis
  
  
  
  
  
• 1015 - Central Banks
  
  
  
  
  
• 1020 - Economic Indicators by Currency or Region
  
  
  
  
  
• 1022 - Major US Fundamental Indicators
  
  
  
  
  
• 1023 - (US) Gross Domestic Product
  
  
  
  
  
• 1024 - (US) Indicators List
  
  
  
  
  
• 1025 - (US) The Employment Situation
  
  
  
  
  
• 1026 - (US) Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
  
  
  
  
  
• 1027 - (US) Institute for Supply Management Indicies
  
  
  
  
  
• 1028 - (US) Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories & Orders
  
  
  
  
  
• 1029 - (US) Manufacturing & Trade, Inventory Sales
  
  
  
  
  
• 1030 - (US) New Residential Construction
  
  
  
  
  
• 1031 - (US) Consumer Confidence & Sentiment Indicies
  
  
  
  
  
• 1032 - (US) Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade & Food Services
  
  
  
  
  
• 1033 - (US) Personal Income Outlays
  
  
  
  
  
• 1034 - (US) Consumer & Producer Price Indicies
  
  
  
  
  
• 1035 - Economics of the USD cont.
  
  
  
  
  
• 1036 - Economics of the GBP
  
  
  
  
  
• 1037 - Economics of the JPY
  
  
  
  
  
• 1038 - Economics of the EUR
  
  
  
  
  
• 1039 - Economics of the CHF
  
  
  
  
  
• 1040 - Economics of the NZD
  
  
  
  
  
• 1041 - Economics of the AUD
  
  
  
  
  
• 1042 - Economics of the CAD
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Forex Trading Strategies

Learning your own style, or in other words trading method(s) that work for you, is an essential part of Forex trading. There is no correct approach that everyone should learn. However, every trader needs to assess how much risk they can comfortably handle. It is the single most important investment issue for a Forex trader to consider.

• 1001 - Learning Your Risk Tolerance
  
  
  
  
  
• 1002 - Diversification
  
  
  
  
  
• 1003 - Pivot Points Background
  
  
  
  
  
• 1004 - Ideas on Trading the News
  
  
  
  
  
• 1005 - How to Trade Breakouts
  
  
  
  
  
• 1010 - The Foundations of Gann Theory
  
  
  
  
  
• 1011 - What is the Elliot Wave Theory
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - MetaTrader 4 Platform (MT4)

MT4 PLATFORM

• 7010 - Beginner Charts
  
  
  
  
  
• 7015 - Beginner Market Watch Window
  
  
  
  
  
• 7020 - Terminal Window
  
  
  
  
  
• 7025 - Beginner Toolbars
  
  
  
  
  
• 7030 - Chart Background Colors
  
  
  
  
  
• 7035 - Advanced Templates
  
  
  
  
  
• 7040 - Advanced Market Watch Window
  
  
  
  
  
• 7045 - How to Delete Demos
  
  
  
  
  
• 7050 - Advanced Toolbars
  
  
  
  
  
• 7055 - Advanced Line Studies
  
  
  
  
  
• 7060 - Advanced Arrows
  
  
  
  
  
• 7065 - Advanced Auto Scroll
  
  
  
  
  
• 7070 - Advanced Chart Shift
  
  
  
  
  
• 7075 - Advanced Window Arrangement
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - MetaTrader 4 Programming

This is not intended to be a full fledge introduction to programming, but we will cover a lot useful information that you will need for the more specific classes. Please make sure you spend more time trying to understand and follow the logic than try to get the right answer. The truth is, in programming, there is not just one right solution.

• 1010 - Intro to Programming
  
  
  
  
  
• 1020 - Intro to MT4 Programming
  
  
  
  
  
• 1030 - Writing Basic MT4 Indicators
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Taxes

Taxation of forex is confusing and uncertain in the tax code and that makes tax filings difficult for forex traders. The tax-problem is that some types of forex are treated as IRC 1256 contracts with lower 60/40 tax treatment and other types of forex are treated as IRC 988 foreign currency transactions with ordinary gain or loss treatment. Plus IRC 1256 and IRC 988 are dueling and conflicting tax code sections.

• 1010 - How Forex is Taxed
  
  
  
  
  
• 1020 - Special Tax Rules
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Market Analysis

MA Video Archive | Market Analysis with Todd Crosland

• Video Archive
  
  
  
  
  

Forex Trading Course - Guest Courses

Courses written by guests.

FOREX PK

Forex Rates (Pakistan) Updated at: Wed, July 29, 2009 12:34 (PST) Courtesy: ECAP
Remittance	Buying	Selling	Trends
USD	83.00	83.30
GBP	134.71	135.34
SR	21.92	22.14
UAE	22.38	22.62
NEWZ	43.5	43.8
AUS	67.37	68.37
EUR	115.97	117.45
CAD	75.57	76.69
HONG	10.44	10.71
IND	1.58	1.68
JPY	0.8663	0.8770
Analysis>> | More Currencies

About Forexpk
It is a real pleasure to write that by the Grace of God, our website forexpk.com has emerged as one of the comprehensive web based research projects not only among the so many categories of KalPoint.com but at the national level as well with due passage of time. As the name itself suggests, www.forexpk.com is all about Forex and business and is a proud product of KKI R&D Department. This is one of KalPoint's major and best hit categories and now stands as one of the premier business websites of Pakistan and a complete portal in itself. The project caters highest number of visitors on a daily basis and holds the honour of one of the most visited websites in KalPoint.com.

Forexpk.com which started off with just a few web pages is now spread over 800 web pages covering not only the currencies but other sectors of business as well. Initially this project was primarily focusing on currencies but now, comprehensive coverage is being given to different other business sectors including stocks, news both national and international, market commentaries covering currencies, stocks, oil, bullion, government policies, useful links, trade news and related policies as well and there is much information available on this project now for the domestic visitors, bankers, corporate customers, students and people involved especially in research projects. Some of the main services which are being offered are highlighted as under:
Real time Forex rates and market commentaries:

One of the most unique features of Forexpk is the availability of the current currency rates to the users, which is not available anywhere on the web from Pakistan. These rates are provided through the courtesy of Khanani and Kalia International (Pvt) Ltd. which are updated round the clock, number of times a day, so that the purpose of providing the most updated information to the visitors can be justified. This section establishes a general perception that KKI provides the most current, authentic and genuine rates not only in the market but on the web as well. Likewise, inter bank rates are also available which are displayed in collaboration with various banks including UBL and HBZ mainly. The real time rates are followed by the market commentaries, which are compiled by our Research team on a daily basis and cover kerb, inter bank and international markets. These reports are written in a way so that the market activities of the whole day can be concluded and the visitors may identify the major causative factors of the ups and downs of the money market in Pakistan on a particular day.